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The Perfect StormThe Perfect Storm

2006-07-16 - 11:18 a.m.
The current crisis in the Middle East is almost a perfect storm.

Hezbullah has declared all out war and has no apparent interest in stopping until Israel is destroyed.

Israel has no intention of stopping until Hezbullah is destroyed or they are pulled back from the Lebanon-Israel border.

The fragile Lebanese government is the only authority that could (in theory) tell them to withdraw, but since Hezbullah would tell them to get shagged, the only position they can hold is to say 'It is Israel's fault' and call for a cease fire.

The G8 is split over who is right and who is wrong.

Syria supports Hezbullah. Iran supports Syria and Hezbullah, and stuck right in the middle is Iraq, on the verge of civil war and with 150,000 coalition troops already up to their collectives asses in shit.

The situation is by no means contained, and things can get worse rapidly if Isarel attacks Syria, which it may do pre-emptively (there are reports of a 72 hour deadline for Syria to pull support for Hezbullah, which would expire sometime Monday), or it may do as retaliation if Hezbullah launches an attack on Israel from Syria.

If they did that, their most likely targets would be Qiryat Shmona (literally Town 8) and Kfar Szold a Kibbutz in the Golan Heights I am initmately familiar with having spent a lot of time there back in the 80s.

If that attack happens, its a crap shoot. Remember - behind Iran is Russia (financialy and politically) and behind Israel is the US.

Pray for a quiet week.

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